An Empty Revolution: The Unfulfilled Promises of Hugo Ch?vez

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Summary:? Even critics of Hugo Ch?vez tend to concede that he has made helping the poor his top priority. But in fact, Ch?vez’s government has not done any more to fight poverty than past Venezuelan governments, and his much-heralded social programs have had little effect. A close look at the evidence reveals just how much Ch?vez’s “revolution” has hurt Venezuela’s economy — and that the poor are hurting most of all.

FRANCISCO RODR?GUEZ, Assistant Professor of Economics and Latin American Studies at Wesleyan University, was Chief Economist of the Venezuelan National Assembly from 2000 to 2004.

On December 2, when Venezuelans delivered President Hugo Ch?vez his first electoral defeat in nine years, most analysts were taken by surprise. According to official results, 50.7 percent of voters rejected Ch?vez’s proposed constitutional reform, which would have expanded executive power, gotten rid of presidential term limits, and paved the way for the construction of a “socialist” economy. It was a major reversal for a president who just a year earlier had won a second six-year term with 62.8 percent of the vote, and commentators scrambled to piece together an explanation. They pointed to idiosyncratic factors, such as the birth of a new student movement and the defection of powerful groups from Ch?vez’s coalition. But few went so far as to challenge the conventional wisdom about how Ch?vez has managed to stay in power for so long.

Although opinions differ on whether Ch?vez’s rule should be characterized as authoritarian or democratic, just about everyone appears to agree that, in contrast to his predecessors, Ch?vez has made the welfare of the Venezuelan poor his top priority. His government, the thinking goes, has provided subsidized food to low-income families, redistributed land and wealth, and poured money from Venezuela’s booming oil industry into health and education programs. It should not be surprising, then, that in a country where politics was long dominated by rich elites, he has earned the lasting support of the Venezuelan poor.

That story line may be compelling to many who are rightly outraged by Latin America’s deep social and economic inequalities. Unfortunately, it is wrong. Neither official statistics nor independent estimates show any evidence that Ch?vez has reoriented state priorities to benefit the poor. Most health and human development indicators have shown no significant improvement beyond that which is normal in the midst of an oil boom. Indeed, some have deteriorated worryingly, and official estimates indicate that income inequality has increased. The “Ch?vez is good for the poor” hypothesis is inconsistent with the facts.

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Source: Foreign Affairs (link opens in a new window)