NextBillion - An Initiative of the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

With more than $1.5 billion in development costs and 20 years of research on the line, Sanofi ($SNY) is getting revved up to launch its world-first dengue vaccine later this year. And if the company’s predictions are correct, the shot will not only be a big deal for patients in the developing world–it’ll be a highly profitable product to boot.

By the end of the year, Sanofi expects the vaccine to be licensed in 20 countries with a total population of 1 billion, the Financial Times reported. Where the vaccine is available first will depend on the regulatory approval process–but it’s not going to be in the U.S. or Europe.

In the past, Sanofi Pasteur has rolled out vaccines first in those markets, but the group is “flipping the model” this time around to favor wide access, dengue chief Guillaume Leroy said during an April presentation. Sanofi Pasteur CEO Olivier Charmeil told the FT that the potential market ranges from 3 billion to 4 billion people; analysts have predicted up to €1 billion per year in sales.

Plus, Charmeil told the FT, the vaccine will be on Sanofi Pasteur’s “high end of profitability.”