NextBillion - An Initiative of the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan

In the context of the Global Health 2035 report that Dean Jamison and I developed, we considered the economic benefit of mortality reduction using approaches derived from economic theory. We noted that the well established fact that people demand higher pay to accept riskier jobs demonstrates that reduced mortality risk has economic value. And we further showed that these benefits are very large relative to standard estimates of the economic impact of health interventions.

In related work, Dean, Victoria Fan and I calculate the potential cost of a 1918 flu recurrence, discounted by its chance of happening. We expect to publish this work soon. On plausible assumptions, we find an expected flu cost approaching $1 trillion a year going forward into the 21st century. This underscores the urgency of doing all that can be done to counter pandemic risks.