NextBillion - A WDI Publication

Africa’s food systems are under mounting pressure from climate change. Prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, floods and heat waves are increasingly common across the continent, undermining both crop and livestock production. For smallholder farmers, who produce up to 80% of sub-Saharan Africa’s food, the stakes are particularly high. Limited access to irrigation, crop insurance and modern agricultural technologies leaves them exposed to every climate shock.

In East Africa, to take one example, repeated droughts have devastated cattle herds, forcing pastoralists to turn to camels, which are better suited to arid conditions and can survive weeks without water. Camel milk is now a lifeline in places like Kenya and Somalia, and its market is projected to grow from $2 billion to over $13 billion by 2030. This is a striking example of how adaptation can create new opportunities even in the midst of crisis.

At the same time, climate change is fueling the spread of diseases, as rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns expand the range of mosquitoes and ticks, leading to more frequent outbreaks of malaria, Rift Valley fever and dengue. These illnesses not only threaten the lives of humans and livestock, they also weaken the agricultural workforce, reducing productivity at a time when food demand is rising. The result is a vicious cycle: Fragile food systems become more unstable, prices rise and households spend larger shares of their income on food. For businesses, this translates into disrupted supply chains, rising input costs and growing uncertainty.

As the examples above demonstrate, the climate crisis is creating both new challenges and new opportunities in African agriculture, and it remains uncertain whether the solutions will outpace the problems. This moment presents a clear choice. While climate-smart innovations and resilience-focused initiatives are emerging across the continent, many responses still prioritize short-term fixes such as emergency food imports, temporary subsidies or reactive crisis spending — solutions that address immediate needs but leave deeper vulnerabilities intact. The alternative path requires sustained investment in climate-smart agriculture, healthy ecosystems and inclusive livelihoods. With the sector now at a climate crossroads, the article below will examine the risks the crisis is generating — and the opportunities available to businesses and investors that take a more forward-looking approach.

Demographic Pressures and Migration

Africa has the world’s youngest population, with more than 400 million people between the ages of 15 and 35. This “youth bulge” is often described as a potential demographic dividend, but without sufficient job opportunities, it risks becoming a source of instability. Climate pressures are already reducing livelihood options in rural areas, pushing many young people to migrate away from farms and villages to cities or across borders. Large-scale migration can strain urban infrastructure, weaken agricultural workforces and rural economies, fuel tensions in host communities, and create political challenges for governments. And for businesses, it can mean sudden shifts in labor availability and consumer demand.

Social protection programs can make a difference, including interventions such as cash transfers, job training or public works that help families weather shocks and avoid (or navigate) forced displacement. In Cameroon, for instance, an adaptive safety net program is targeting young people with temporary jobs and entrepreneurship support to benefit poor households and urban youth, with a key focus on internally displaced people. In rural areas, similar approaches often focus on agriculture and green industries, building new sources of employment in communities where climate pressures have narrowed traditional livelihood options. FAO’s Green Jobs for Rural Youth Employment initiative, for example, supports young people with training and job opportunities in climate-smart farming, agro-processing, beekeeping, land restoration and other environmentally sustainable activities. By building skills and income around agriculture and natural resource management, these programs help rural youth see viable futures in their own communities, rather than feeling compelled to leave in search of work.

For investors, this demographic reality highlights both a risk and an opportunity: the risk of instability if youth aspirations go unmet, and the opportunity to build inclusive business models that engage Africa’s next generation in climate-resilient livelihoods.

Ecosystems and Biodiversity at Risk

Africa’s ecosystems, including forests, rangelands, wetlands and fisheries, are essential for food and water security. But they are increasingly threatened by climate change and human pressures. In North Africa, for instance, long-term monitoring of wetlands shows that endangered waterbirds are declining as droughts intensify. These types of changes are not only a conservation concern: They also signal the weakening of ecosystems that regulate water cycles, fertilize soils and sustain agriculture.

Biodiversity loss carries direct business costs for farmers and agriculture businesses. For example, the decline of pollinators causes crop yields to fall. Without healthy soils, fertilizer use rises, raising costs for farmers and food companies. And without functioning watersheds, floods and droughts become more severe, disrupting production. The erosion of ecosystems and the loss of the benefits they deliver to farmers ultimately show up in higher prices, tighter margins and more volatile markets.

Yet there are also opportunities in reversing these trends. Community-based conservation programs across Africa are proving that local people, when empowered, can manage resources sustainably while improving livelihoods. For instance, integrating agroforestry practices, where trees are planted alongside crops, can restore soils, improve yields, and provide additional products such as fruit or timber. For companies, partnering with communities in conservation and restoration is increasingly seen not just as corporate responsibility, but as a strategy to secure long-term supply chains.

Emerging Business Opportunities

While the risks are real, Africa’s climate challenges are also spurring innovation and investment. Climate-smart agriculture is one of the most promising areas. Drought-tolerant seeds, water-efficient irrigation systems and resilient livestock practices are being tested and adopted. The emergence of camel dairies, climate-resilient cereals such as sorghum and millet, and biofortified crops show how enterprises are turning climate pressures into opportunities. Digital and financial innovations are also expanding rapidly. Satellite-based crop monitoring tools from companies such as Satelligence use satellite imagery to track crop health and climate risks in near real time. Index-based agricultural insurance offered by firms like ACRE Africa and Pula Advisors provides automatic payouts to farmers during droughts or floods, helping reduce losses from climate shocks. At the same time, machine-learning yield forecasts from platforms such as CropIn help agribusinesses anticipate production risks and plan more resilient supply chains. Together, these tools reduce uncertainty and make climate-smart agriculture more attractive to investors.

Green finance is another growing frontier, with adaptation bonds, blended finance mechanisms and climate investment funds helping to de-risk projects and scale resilience-focused ventures. By combining public resources with private capital, these instruments make it possible to finance agriculture projects that would otherwise be considered too risky. Community-based models also show promise: When businesses partner with local farming cooperatives and conservation initiatives, they can strengthen supply chains while contributing to social impact. These models align with global sustainability goals and are increasingly valued by international investors.

Africa’s climate challenge ultimately presents the agriculture sector with a choice, and it’s still unclear which path key stakeholders will ultimately take. While many businesses, governments and communities are advancing climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem restoration and resilient livelihoods, these efforts remain uneven, and they are often overshadowed by short-term responses that manage crises without reducing long-term risk. If such approaches continue to dominate, Africa’s food systems are likely to remain trapped in a cycle of repeated shocks and emergency responses, while climate adaptation funding remains insufficient.

The more resilient path, already visible but not yet scaled, lies in sustained investment in agriculture technologies, ecosystems and people that can turn climate risk into opportunity. For businesses, investors and policymakers, the question at this crossroads is not whether solutions exist, but whether they will be pursued with the urgency and scale required.

Asamoah Oppong Zadok is a researcher specializing in sustainable agriculture, agribusiness and agricultural policy, and the founder of Sustaina Harvest.

Photo credit: by-studio